Sandecja Nowy Sącz 2–3 Pogoń Siedlce

Sandecja Nowy Sącz

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Pogoń Siedlce

3/9/2024

II Liga - East · Round 23Stadion ul. Kusocińskiego

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Sandecja Nowy Sącz39%

×Draw25%

Pogoń Siedlce36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sandecja Nowy SączExpected goals in this matchPogoń Siedlce

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.38

Sandecja Nowy Sącz

1.44

Pogoń Siedlce

1.38

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 34 home / 86 away

1.29

creates per match

1.52

1.24

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Sandecja Nowy Sącz

1.29

Pogoń Siedlce

1.52

allows per match

Sandecja Nowy Sącz

1.24

Pogoń Siedlce

1.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sandecja Nowy Sącz+0.00on par

Pogoń Siedlce+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sandecja Nowy Sącz ↓

Pogoń Siedlce →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Sandecja Nowy Sącz or draw

64%

Sandecja Nowy Sącz or Pogoń Siedlce

75%

Draw or Pogoń Siedlce

61%

Winning margin

Sandecja Nowy Sącz wins by 2+

18%

Pogoń Siedlce wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Sandecja Nowy Sącz 1+ goals

76%

Sandecja Nowy Sącz 2+ goals

42%

Sandecja Nowy Sącz 3+ goals

18%

Pogoń Siedlce 1+ goals

75%

Pogoń Siedlce 2+ goals

40%

Pogoń Siedlce 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Sandecja Nowy Sącz (draw refunded)

52%

Pogoń Siedlce (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sandecja Nowy Sącz at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.24 · 34 matches

Pogoń Siedlce away — creates 1.52, concedes 1.58 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sandecja Nowy Sącz attack 1.29 + Pogoń Siedlce defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.44

Pogoń Siedlce attack 1.52 + Sandecja Nowy Sącz defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Sandecja Nowy Sącz scores more

39%

level

25%

Pogoń Siedlce scores more

36%

Sandecja Nowy Sącz at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Sandecja Nowy Sącz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff