Pogoń Siedlce vs Sandecja Nowy Sącz — II Liga - East 2019
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 36+ matches
Pogoń Siedlce39%
Sandecja Nowy Sącz36%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Both teams create about equally
Season form · 85 home / 36 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over53
- Under47
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes57
- No43
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Pogoń Siedlce ↓
Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Pogoń Siedlce at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.42 · 85 matches
Sandecja Nowy Sącz away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.39 · 36 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Pogoń Siedlce attack 1.48 + Sandecja Nowy Sącz defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.44
Sandecja Nowy Sącz attack 1.33 + Pogoń Siedlce defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.38
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 39%?"
Pogoń Siedlce at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 39% does not mean "Pogoń Siedlce will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Sandecja Nowy Sącz substitutes
Head to Head
Górnik Łęczna
Widzew Łódź
GKS Katowice
Bytovia Bytów
Resovia Rzeszów
Stal Rzeszów
Garbarnia Kraków
Olimpia Elbląg
Znicz PruszkówPogoń Siedlce
Górnik Polkowice
Stargard Szczeciński
Lech Poznań II
SKRA Częstochowa
Stal Stalowa Wola
Elana Toruń
Legionovia Legionowo
Gryf WejherowoIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Pogoń Siedlce host Sandecja Nowy Sącz on Saturday, 26 August 2023 at 15:00. The match is part of the II Liga - East 2019/2020 season.
Pogoń Siedlce 3 – 0 Sandecja Nowy Sącz
Pogoń Siedlce beat Sandecja Nowy Sącz 3-0 in II Liga - East on August 26, 2023.
Goals: P. Misiak (41'), C. Demianiuk (84' pen), K. Miś (90+4').
The match was played at Stadion ROSRRiT in Siedlce.