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Sandecja Nowy Sącz vs Podhale Nowy Targ — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Sandecja Nowy Sącz
Sandecja Nowy Sącz
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Podhale Nowy Targ
Podhale Nowy Targ
4/26/2025III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 27Stadion im. Ojca Władysława Augustynka

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Sandecja Nowy Sącz57%
×Draw22%
Podhale Nowy Targ21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sandecja Nowy Sącz
1.89
Podhale Nowy Targ
1.04

Sandecja Nowy Sącz creates 82% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 86 away

creates per match

Sandecja Nowy Sącz
2.29
Podhale Nowy Targ
1.38

allows per match

Sandecja Nowy Sącz
0.71
Podhale Nowy Targ
1.49

finishing

Sandecja Nowy Sącz+0.00on par
Podhale Nowy Targ+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sandecja Nowy Sącz ↓

Podhale Nowy Targ →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Sandecja Nowy Sącz or draw
79%
Sandecja Nowy Sącz or Podhale Nowy Targ
78%
Draw or Podhale Nowy Targ
43%

Winning margin

Sandecja Nowy Sącz wins by 2+
33%
Podhale Nowy Targ wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Sandecja Nowy Sącz 1+ goals
85%
Sandecja Nowy Sącz 2+ goals
56%
Sandecja Nowy Sącz 3+ goals
29%
Podhale Nowy Targ 1+ goals
65%
Podhale Nowy Targ 2+ goals
28%
Podhale Nowy Targ 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Sandecja Nowy Sącz (draw refunded)
74%
Podhale Nowy Targ (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sandecja Nowy Sącz at home — creates 2.29, concedes 0.71 · 17 matches

Podhale Nowy Targ away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.49 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sandecja Nowy Sącz attack 2.29 + Podhale Nowy Targ defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.89

Podhale Nowy Targ attack 1.38 + Sandecja Nowy Sącz defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Sandecja Nowy Sącz scores more
57%
level
22%
Podhale Nowy Targ scores more
21%

Sandecja Nowy Sącz at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Sandecja Nowy Sącz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sandecja Nowy Sącz vs Podhale Nowy Targ

Sandecja Nowy Sącz beat Podhale Nowy Targ 2-1 in III Liga - Group 4 on April 26, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion im. Ojca Władysława Augustynka in Nowy Sącz.