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Podhale Nowy Targ vs Sandecja Nowy Sącz — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Podhale Nowy Targ
Podhale Nowy Targ
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Sandecja Nowy Sącz
Sandecja Nowy Sącz
9/29/2024III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 10Stadion Miejski im. Józefa Piłsudskiego

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Podhale Nowy Targ41%
×Draw25%
Sandecja Nowy Sącz34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Podhale Nowy Targ
1.48
Sandecja Nowy Sącz
1.31

Podhale Nowy Targ creates 13% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 17 away

creates per match

Podhale Nowy Targ
1.83
Sandecja Nowy Sącz
1.53

allows per match

Podhale Nowy Targ
1.08
Sandecja Nowy Sącz
1.12

finishing

Podhale Nowy Targ+0.00on par
Sandecja Nowy Sącz+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Podhale Nowy Targ ↓

Sandecja Nowy Sącz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Podhale Nowy Targ or draw
66%
Podhale Nowy Targ or Sandecja Nowy Sącz
75%
Draw or Sandecja Nowy Sącz
59%

Winning margin

Podhale Nowy Targ wins by 2+
20%
Sandecja Nowy Sącz wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Podhale Nowy Targ 1+ goals
77%
Podhale Nowy Targ 2+ goals
43%
Podhale Nowy Targ 3+ goals
19%
Sandecja Nowy Sącz 1+ goals
73%
Sandecja Nowy Sącz 2+ goals
38%
Sandecja Nowy Sącz 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Podhale Nowy Targ (draw refunded)
55%
Sandecja Nowy Sącz (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Podhale Nowy Targ at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.08 · 89 matches

Sandecja Nowy Sącz away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.12 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Podhale Nowy Targ attack 1.83 + Sandecja Nowy Sącz defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.48

Sandecja Nowy Sącz attack 1.53 + Podhale Nowy Targ defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Podhale Nowy Targ scores more
41%
level
25%
Sandecja Nowy Sącz scores more
34%

Podhale Nowy Targ at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Podhale Nowy Targ will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 4: Podhale Nowy Targ 2–1 Sandecja Nowy Sącz

Podhale Nowy Targ beat Sandecja Nowy Sącz 2-1 in III Liga - Group 4 on September 29, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski im. Józefa Piłsudskiego in Nowy Targ.