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Sandecja Nowy Sącz vs Lewart — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Sandecja Nowy Sącz
Sandecja Nowy Sącz
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Lewart
Lewart
3/22/2025III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 22Stadion im. Ojca Władysława Augustynka

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Sandecja Nowy Sącz66%
×Draw20%
Lewart14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sandecja Nowy Sącz
2.09
Lewart
0.83

Sandecja Nowy Sącz creates 152% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 37 away

creates per match

Sandecja Nowy Sącz
2.29
Lewart
0.95

allows per match

Sandecja Nowy Sącz
0.71
Lewart
1.89

finishing

Sandecja Nowy Sącz+0.00on par
Lewart+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sandecja Nowy Sącz ↓

Lewart →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Sandecja Nowy Sącz or draw
86%
Sandecja Nowy Sącz or Lewart
80%
Draw or Lewart
34%

Winning margin

Sandecja Nowy Sącz wins by 2+
42%
Lewart wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Sandecja Nowy Sącz 1+ goals
88%
Sandecja Nowy Sącz 2+ goals
62%
Sandecja Nowy Sącz 3+ goals
34%
Lewart 1+ goals
56%
Lewart 2+ goals
20%
Lewart 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Sandecja Nowy Sącz (draw refunded)
83%
Lewart (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sandecja Nowy Sącz at home — creates 2.29, concedes 0.71 · 17 matches

Lewart away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.89 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sandecja Nowy Sącz attack 2.29 + Lewart defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 2.09

Lewart attack 0.95 + Sandecja Nowy Sącz defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Sandecja Nowy Sącz scores more
66%
level
20%
Lewart scores more
14%

Sandecja Nowy Sącz at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Sandecja Nowy Sącz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sandecja Nowy Sącz vs Lewart

Sandecja Nowy Sącz beat Lewart 3-0 in III Liga - Group 4 on March 22, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion im. Ojca Władysława Augustynka in Nowy Sącz.