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Lewart vs Sandecja Nowy Sącz — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Lewart
Lewart
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Sandecja Nowy Sącz
Sandecja Nowy Sącz
8/24/2024III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 5Stadion Miejski w Lubartowie

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Lewart27%
×Draw25%
Sandecja Nowy Sącz48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lewart
1.13
Sandecja Nowy Sącz
1.61

Sandecja Nowy Sącz creates 42% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 17 away

creates per match

Lewart
1.14
Sandecja Nowy Sącz
1.53

allows per match

Lewart
1.70
Sandecja Nowy Sącz
1.12

finishing

Lewart+0.00on par
Sandecja Nowy Sącz+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lewart ↓

Sandecja Nowy Sącz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Lewart or draw
52%
Lewart or Sandecja Nowy Sącz
75%
Draw or Sandecja Nowy Sącz
73%

Winning margin

Lewart wins by 2+
10%
Sandecja Nowy Sącz wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Lewart 1+ goals
68%
Lewart 2+ goals
31%
Lewart 3+ goals
11%
Sandecja Nowy Sącz 1+ goals
80%
Sandecja Nowy Sącz 2+ goals
48%
Sandecja Nowy Sącz 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Lewart (draw refunded)
36%
Sandecja Nowy Sącz (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lewart at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.70 · 37 matches

Sandecja Nowy Sącz away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.12 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lewart attack 1.14 + Sandecja Nowy Sącz defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.13

Sandecja Nowy Sącz attack 1.53 + Lewart defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Lewart scores more
27%
level
25%
Sandecja Nowy Sącz scores more
48%

Sandecja Nowy Sącz at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Sandecja Nowy Sącz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 4: Lewart 1–2 Sandecja Nowy Sącz

Sandecja Nowy Sącz beat Lewart 2-1 in III Liga - Group 4 on August 24, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski w Lubartowie in Lubartów.