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Sandecja Nowy Sącz vs Kotwica Kołobrzeg — II Liga - East 2019

Sandecja Nowy Sącz
Sandecja Nowy Sącz
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Kotwica Kołobrzeg
Kotwica Kołobrzeg
5/25/2024II Liga - EastII Liga - East · Round 34Stadion ul. Kusocińskiego

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Sandecja Nowy Sącz36%
×Draw25%
Kotwica Kołobrzeg39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sandecja Nowy Sącz
1.40
Kotwica Kołobrzeg
1.48

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 34 home / 34 away

creates per match

Sandecja Nowy Sącz
1.29
Kotwica Kołobrzeg
1.71

allows per match

Sandecja Nowy Sącz
1.24
Kotwica Kołobrzeg
1.50

finishing

Sandecja Nowy Sącz+0.00on par
Kotwica Kołobrzeg+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sandecja Nowy Sącz ↓

Kotwica Kołobrzeg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Sandecja Nowy Sącz or draw
61%
Sandecja Nowy Sącz or Kotwica Kołobrzeg
75%
Draw or Kotwica Kołobrzeg
64%

Winning margin

Sandecja Nowy Sącz wins by 2+
16%
Kotwica Kołobrzeg wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Sandecja Nowy Sącz 1+ goals
75%
Sandecja Nowy Sącz 2+ goals
41%
Sandecja Nowy Sącz 3+ goals
17%
Kotwica Kołobrzeg 1+ goals
77%
Kotwica Kołobrzeg 2+ goals
43%
Kotwica Kołobrzeg 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Sandecja Nowy Sącz (draw refunded)
48%
Kotwica Kołobrzeg (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sandecja Nowy Sącz at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.24 · 34 matches

Kotwica Kołobrzeg away — creates 1.71, concedes 1.50 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sandecja Nowy Sącz attack 1.29 + Kotwica Kołobrzeg defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.40

Kotwica Kołobrzeg attack 1.71 + Sandecja Nowy Sącz defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Sandecja Nowy Sącz scores more
36%
level
25%
Kotwica Kołobrzeg scores more
39%

Kotwica Kołobrzeg at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Kotwica Kołobrzeg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

II Liga - East: Sandecja Nowy Sącz 3–1 Kotwica Kołobrzeg

Sandecja Nowy Sącz beat Kotwica Kołobrzeg 3-1 in II Liga - East on May 25, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion ul. Kusocińskiego in Niepołomice.