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Kotwica Kołobrzeg vs Sandecja Nowy Sącz — II Liga - East 2019

Kotwica Kołobrzeg
Kotwica Kołobrzeg
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Sandecja Nowy Sącz
Sandecja Nowy Sącz
11/10/2023II Liga - EastII Liga - East · Round 17Stadion Miejski im. Sebastiana Karpiniuka

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Kotwica Kołobrzeg45%
×Draw27%
Sandecja Nowy Sącz29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kotwica Kołobrzeg
1.40
Sandecja Nowy Sącz
1.06

Kotwica Kołobrzeg creates 32% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 36 away

creates per match

Kotwica Kołobrzeg
1.41
Sandecja Nowy Sącz
1.33

allows per match

Kotwica Kołobrzeg
0.79
Sandecja Nowy Sącz
1.39

finishing

Kotwica Kołobrzeg+0.00on par
Sandecja Nowy Sącz+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kotwica Kołobrzeg ↓

Sandecja Nowy Sącz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Kotwica Kołobrzeg or draw
71%
Kotwica Kołobrzeg or Sandecja Nowy Sącz
73%
Draw or Sandecja Nowy Sącz
55%

Winning margin

Kotwica Kołobrzeg wins by 2+
21%
Sandecja Nowy Sącz wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Kotwica Kołobrzeg 1+ goals
75%
Kotwica Kołobrzeg 2+ goals
41%
Kotwica Kołobrzeg 3+ goals
17%
Sandecja Nowy Sącz 1+ goals
65%
Sandecja Nowy Sącz 2+ goals
29%
Sandecja Nowy Sącz 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Kotwica Kołobrzeg (draw refunded)
61%
Sandecja Nowy Sącz (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kotwica Kołobrzeg at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.79 · 34 matches

Sandecja Nowy Sącz away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.39 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kotwica Kołobrzeg attack 1.41 + Sandecja Nowy Sącz defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.40

Sandecja Nowy Sącz attack 1.33 + Kotwica Kołobrzeg defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Kotwica Kołobrzeg scores more
45%
level
27%
Sandecja Nowy Sącz scores more
29%

Kotwica Kołobrzeg at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Kotwica Kołobrzeg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kotwica Kołobrzeg vs Sandecja Nowy Sącz

Kotwica Kołobrzeg beat Sandecja Nowy Sącz 2-1 in II Liga - East on November 10, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski im. Sebastiana Karpiniuka in Kołobrzeg.