Sandecja Nowy Sącz 2–0 Jastrzębie: Result & Stats

Sandecja Nowy Sącz

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Jastrzębie

R. Kobryń 76'

Ł. Zjawiński 72'

4/5/2022

I Liga · Round 25Stadion im. Ojca Władysława Augustynka

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Sandecja Nowy Sącz43%

×Draw27%

Jastrzębie30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sandecja Nowy SączExpected goals in this matchJastrzębie

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.07

Sandecja Nowy Sącz

1.34

Jastrzębie

1.07

Sandecja Nowy Sącz creates 25% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 67 away

1.29

creates per match

0.97

1.17

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Sandecja Nowy Sącz

1.29

Jastrzębie

0.97

allows per match

Sandecja Nowy Sącz

1.17

Jastrzębie

1.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sandecja Nowy Sącz+0.00on par

Jastrzębie+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sandecja Nowy Sącz ↓

Jastrzębie →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Sandecja Nowy Sącz or draw

70%

Sandecja Nowy Sącz or Jastrzębie

73%

Draw or Jastrzębie

57%

Winning margin

Sandecja Nowy Sącz wins by 2+

20%

Jastrzębie wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Sandecja Nowy Sącz 1+ goals

74%

Sandecja Nowy Sącz 2+ goals

39%

Sandecja Nowy Sącz 3+ goals

15%

Jastrzębie 1+ goals

66%

Jastrzębie 2+ goals

29%

Jastrzębie 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Sandecja Nowy Sącz (draw refunded)

59%

Jastrzębie (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sandecja Nowy Sącz at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.17 · 84 matches

Jastrzębie away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.39 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sandecja Nowy Sącz attack 1.29 + Jastrzębie defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.34

Jastrzębie attack 0.97 + Sandecja Nowy Sącz defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Sandecja Nowy Sącz scores more

43%

level

27%

Jastrzębie scores more

30%

Sandecja Nowy Sącz at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Sandecja Nowy Sącz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'

18'

38'

38'

46'

61'

D. Stanclik← D. Kamiński

61'

M. Kuczałek← K. Handzlik

72'

Ł. Zjawiński

75'

G. Koffie← D. Šovšić

76'

R. Kobryń

77'

M. Słodowy← Ł. Zejdler

77'

S. Zalewski← R. Borkała

81'

D. Szkudlarek← N. Wybraniec

83'

J. Zych← T. Nawotka

90+3'

M. Kuczalek

Sandecja

Jastrzębie

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: D. Dudek

46'▲S. Dikov←▼D. Chmiel

75'▲G. Koffie←▼D. Šovšić

83'▲J. Zych←▼T. Nawotka

Sandecja Nowy Sącz substitutes

DikovKoffieZychKasprzakSzczepanekJanickiRudolTokarzKosakiewicz

Manager: G. Kurdziel

61'▲D. Stanclik←▼D. Kamiński

61'▲M. Kuczałek←▼K. Handzlik

77'▲M. Słodowy←▼Ł. Zejdler

77'▲S. Zalewski←▼R. Borkała

81'▲D. Szkudlarek←▼N. Wybraniec

Jastrzębie substitutes

StanclikKuczałekSłodowyZalewskiSzkudlarekAliJadachReclafGajda

I Liga: Sandecja Nowy Sącz 2–0 Jastrzębie

Sandecja Nowy Sącz beat Jastrzębie 2-0 in I Liga on April 5, 2022.

Goals: Ł. Zjawiński (72'), R. Kobryń (76').

The match was played at Stadion im. Ojca Władysława Augustynka in Nowy Sącz.

Sandecja Nowy Sącz vs Jastrzębie — I Liga 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

I Liga: Sandecja Nowy Sącz 2–0 Jastrzębie