Jastrzębie vs Sandecja Nowy Sącz — II Liga - East 2019
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 36+ matches
Jastrzębie37%
Sandecja Nowy Sącz37%✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Both teams create about equally
Season form · 63 home / 36 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under52
- Over48
Close call
Both teams score
- Yes53
- No47
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Jastrzębie ↓
Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Jastrzębie at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.25 · 63 matches
Sandecja Nowy Sącz away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.39 · 36 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Jastrzębie attack 1.19 + Sandecja Nowy Sącz defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.29
Sandecja Nowy Sącz attack 1.33 + Jastrzębie defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.29
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 37%?"
Jastrzębie at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 37% does not mean "Jastrzębie will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Górnik Łęczna
Widzew Łódź
GKS Katowice
Bytovia Bytów
Resovia Rzeszów
Stal Rzeszów
Garbarnia Kraków
Olimpia Elbląg
Znicz Pruszków
Pogoń Siedlce
Górnik Polkowice
Stargard Szczeciński
Lech Poznań II
SKRA Częstochowa
Stal Stalowa Wola
Elana Toruń
Legionovia Legionowo
Gryf WejherowoIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Jastrzębie host Sandecja Nowy Sącz on Friday, 15 August 2025 at 10:00. The match is part of the II Liga - East 2019/2020 season.
Jastrzębie 2 – 3 Sandecja Nowy Sącz
Sandecja Nowy Sącz beat Jastrzębie 3-2 in II Liga - East on August 15, 2025.
Goals: B. Kriegler (2'), T. Kolbon (15'), K. Talar (35'), S. Mroczko (41'), F. Piszczek (61').
The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Jastrzebie-Zdroj.