Sandecja Nowy Sącz 2–2 Hutnik Kraków

Sandecja Nowy Sącz

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Hutnik Kraków

Trialist A 23'

A. Brenkus 21'

M. Budzinski 50'

K. Prusinski 15' (pen)

6/27/2026

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Sandecja Nowy Sącz64%

×Draw18%

Hutnik Kraków18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sandecja Nowy SączExpected goals in this matchHutnik Kraków

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.56

1.30

Sandecja Nowy Sącz

2.56

Hutnik Kraków

1.30

Sandecja Nowy Sącz creates 97% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 10 away

2.82

creates per match

1.60

1.00

allows per match

2.30

creates per match

Sandecja Nowy Sącz

2.82

Hutnik Kraków

1.60

allows per match

Sandecja Nowy Sącz

1.00

Hutnik Kraków

2.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sandecja Nowy Sącz+0.00on par

Hutnik Kraków+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sandecja Nowy Sącz ↓

Hutnik Kraków →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–17%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

53%47%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

Sandecja Nowy Sącz or draw

82%

Sandecja Nowy Sącz or Hutnik Kraków

82%

Draw or Hutnik Kraków

36%

Winning margin

Sandecja Nowy Sącz wins by 2+

43%

Hutnik Kraków wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Sandecja Nowy Sącz 1+ goals

92%

Sandecja Nowy Sącz 2+ goals

72%

Sandecja Nowy Sącz 3+ goals

46%

Hutnik Kraków 1+ goals

73%

Hutnik Kraków 2+ goals

37%

Hutnik Kraków 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Sandecja Nowy Sącz (draw refunded)

78%

Hutnik Kraków (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sandecja Nowy Sącz at home — creates 2.82, concedes 1.00 · 11 matches

Hutnik Kraków away — creates 1.60, concedes 2.30 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sandecja Nowy Sącz attack 2.82 + Hutnik Kraków defence 2.30 → ÷2 → 2.56

Hutnik Kraków attack 1.60 + Sandecja Nowy Sącz defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Sandecja Nowy Sącz scores more

64%

level

18%

Hutnik Kraków scores more

18%

Sandecja Nowy Sącz at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Sandecja Nowy Sącz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'

K. PrusinskiPenalty

21'

A. Brenkus

23'

Trialist A

50'

M. Budzinski

Sandecja

Hutnik

Manager: Lukasz Mierzejewski

Manager: Krzysztof Swiatek