Hutnik Kraków 2–3 Sandecja Nowy Sącz

Hutnik Kraków

FT

2 – 3

HT: 2 – 0

Sandecja Nowy Sącz

6/21/2024

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Hutnik Kraków32%

×Draw24%

Sandecja Nowy Sącz44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hutnik KrakówExpected goals in this matchSandecja Nowy Sącz

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.65

Hutnik Kraków

1.39

Sandecja Nowy Sącz

1.65

Sandecja Nowy Sącz creates 19% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 10 away

1.58

creates per match

1.30

2.00

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Hutnik Kraków

1.58

Sandecja Nowy Sącz

1.30

allows per match

Hutnik Kraków

2.00

Sandecja Nowy Sącz

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hutnik Kraków+0.00on par

Sandecja Nowy Sącz+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hutnik Kraków ↓

Sandecja Nowy Sącz →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Hutnik Kraków or draw

56%

Hutnik Kraków or Sandecja Nowy Sącz

76%

Draw or Sandecja Nowy Sącz

68%

Winning margin

Hutnik Kraków wins by 2+

15%

Sandecja Nowy Sącz wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Hutnik Kraków 1+ goals

75%

Hutnik Kraków 2+ goals

40%

Hutnik Kraków 3+ goals

16%

Sandecja Nowy Sącz 1+ goals

81%

Sandecja Nowy Sącz 2+ goals

49%

Sandecja Nowy Sącz 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Hutnik Kraków (draw refunded)

43%

Sandecja Nowy Sącz (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hutnik Kraków at home — creates 1.58, concedes 2.00 · 12 matches

Sandecja Nowy Sącz away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.20 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hutnik Kraków attack 1.58 + Sandecja Nowy Sącz defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.39

Sandecja Nowy Sącz attack 1.30 + Hutnik Kraków defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Hutnik Kraków scores more

32%

level

24%

Sandecja Nowy Sącz scores more

44%

Sandecja Nowy Sącz at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Sandecja Nowy Sącz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff