Sandecja Nowy Sącz 1–1 Górnik Łęczna

Sandecja Nowy Sącz

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Górnik Łęczna

T. Boczek 76'

T. Midzierski 8'

12/13/2020

I Liga · Round 17Stadion im. Ojca Władysława Augustynka

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 82+ matches

Sandecja Nowy Sącz40%

×Draw27%

Górnik Łęczna33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sandecja Nowy SączExpected goals in this matchGórnik Łęczna

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.15

Sandecja Nowy Sącz

1.31

Górnik Łęczna

1.15

Sandecja Nowy Sącz creates 14% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 86 away

1.29

creates per match

1.13

1.16

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Sandecja Nowy Sącz

1.29

Górnik Łęczna

1.13

allows per match

Sandecja Nowy Sącz

1.16

Górnik Łęczna

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sandecja Nowy Sącz+0.00on par

Górnik Łęczna+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sandecja Nowy Sącz ↓

Górnik Łęczna →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Sandecja Nowy Sącz or draw

67%

Sandecja Nowy Sącz or Górnik Łęczna

73%

Draw or Górnik Łęczna

60%

Winning margin

Sandecja Nowy Sącz wins by 2+

18%

Górnik Łęczna wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Sandecja Nowy Sącz 1+ goals

73%

Sandecja Nowy Sącz 2+ goals

38%

Sandecja Nowy Sącz 3+ goals

14%

Górnik Łęczna 1+ goals

68%

Górnik Łęczna 2+ goals

32%

Górnik Łęczna 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Sandecja Nowy Sącz (draw refunded)

55%

Górnik Łęczna (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sandecja Nowy Sącz at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.16 · 82 matches

Górnik Łęczna away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.33 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sandecja Nowy Sącz attack 1.29 + Górnik Łęczna defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.31

Górnik Łęczna attack 1.13 + Sandecja Nowy Sącz defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Sandecja Nowy Sącz scores more

40%

level

27%

Górnik Łęczna scores more

33%

Sandecja Nowy Sącz at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Sandecja Nowy Sącz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'

T. Midzierski

13'

M. Małkowski← D. Chmiel

54'

61'

61'

61'

63'

63'

P. Banaszak← B. Kalinkowski

75'

A. Stasiak← P. Wojciechowski

76'

T. Boczek

78'

T. Tymosiak

78'

T. Tymosiak

81'

K. Turek← Leandro

81'

K. Pajnowski← B. Kukułowicz

85'

W. Zoladz← K. Ogorzały

85'

M. Kalahur← M. Bučko

90+2'

K. Turek

Sandecja

Górnik

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: D. Dudek

13'▲M. Małkowski←▼D. Chmiel

61'▲M. Korzym←▼M. Walski

61'▲A. Danek←▼A. Basta

85'▲W. Zoladz←▼K. Ogorzały

85'▲M. Kalahur←▼M. Bučko

Sandecja Nowy Sącz substitutes

MałkowskiKorzymDanekZoladzKalahur

Manager: K. Kieres

63'▲P. Banaszak←▼B. Kalinkowski

75'▲A. Stasiak←▼P. Wojciechowski

81'▲K. Turek←▼Leandro

81'▲K. Pajnowski←▼B. Kukułowicz

Górnik Łęczna substitutes

BanaszakStasiakTurekPajnowski

Match Recap: Sandecja Nowy Sącz vs Górnik Łęczna

Sandecja Nowy Sącz and Górnik Łęczna drew 1-1 in I Liga on December 13, 2020.

Goals: T. Midzierski (8'), T. Boczek (76').

The match was played at Stadion im. Ojca Władysława Augustynka in Nowy Sącz.

Sandecja Nowy Sącz vs Górnik Łęczna — I Liga 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Sandecja Nowy Sącz vs Górnik Łęczna