Górnik Łęczna 3–0 Sandecja Nowy Sącz

Górnik Łęczna

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Sandecja Nowy Sącz

P. Banaszak 73' (pen), 13' (pen)

B. Śpiączka 57'

6/13/2021

I Liga · Round 34Stadion Górnik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

Górnik Łęczna44%

×Draw27%

Sandecja Nowy Sącz28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Górnik ŁęcznaExpected goals in this matchSandecja Nowy Sącz

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.02

Górnik Łęczna

1.35

Sandecja Nowy Sącz

1.02

Górnik Łęczna creates 32% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 79 away

1.35

creates per match

0.94

1.11

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Górnik Łęczna

1.35

Sandecja Nowy Sącz

0.94

allows per match

Górnik Łęczna

1.11

Sandecja Nowy Sącz

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Górnik Łęczna+0.00on par

Sandecja Nowy Sącz+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Górnik Łęczna ↓

Sandecja Nowy Sącz →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Górnik Łęczna or draw

72%

Górnik Łęczna or Sandecja Nowy Sącz

73%

Draw or Sandecja Nowy Sącz

56%

Winning margin

Górnik Łęczna wins by 2+

21%

Sandecja Nowy Sącz wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Górnik Łęczna 1+ goals

74%

Górnik Łęczna 2+ goals

39%

Górnik Łęczna 3+ goals

15%

Sandecja Nowy Sącz 1+ goals

64%

Sandecja Nowy Sącz 2+ goals

27%

Sandecja Nowy Sącz 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Górnik Łęczna (draw refunded)

61%

Sandecja Nowy Sącz (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Górnik Łęczna at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.11 · 85 matches

Sandecja Nowy Sącz away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.35 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Górnik Łęczna attack 1.35 + Sandecja Nowy Sącz defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.35

Sandecja Nowy Sącz attack 0.94 + Górnik Łęczna defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Górnik Łęczna scores more

44%

level

27%

Sandecja Nowy Sącz scores more

28%

Górnik Łęczna at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Górnik Łęczna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

T. Boczek

13'

P. BanaszakPenalty

57'

B. Śpiączka

67'

M. Mak

73'

P. BanaszakPenalty

76'

W. Zoladz← T. Boczek

76'

J. Zych← D. Chmiel

77'

M. Goliński← B. Kukułowicz

78'

G. Matei← M. Mak

79'

M. Małkowski← D. Šovšić

80'

K. Pajnowski← Leandro

80'

P. Wojciechowski← P. Banaszak

84'

K. Struski← B. Kalinkowski

89'

I. Maślanka← D. Błanik

90'

B. Spiaczka

Górnik

Sandecja

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽2

▼

Banaszak

Manager: K. Kieres

77'▲M. Goliński←▼B. Kukułowicz

78'▲G. Matei←▼M. Mak

80'▲K. Pajnowski←▼Leandro

80'▲P. Wojciechowski←▼P. Banaszak

84'▲K. Struski←▼B. Kalinkowski

Górnik Łęczna substitutes

GolińskiMateiPajnowskiWojciechowskiStruski

Manager: D. Dudek

76'▲W. Zoladz←▼T. Boczek

76'▲J. Zych←▼D. Chmiel

79'▲M. Małkowski←▼D. Šovšić

89'▲I. Maślanka←▼D. Błanik

Sandecja Nowy Sącz substitutes

ZoladzZychMałkowskiMaślanka

Match Recap: Górnik Łęczna vs Sandecja Nowy Sącz

Górnik Łęczna beat Sandecja Nowy Sącz 3-0 in I Liga on June 13, 2021.

Goals: P. Banaszak (13' pen, 73' pen), B. Śpiączka (57').

The match was played at Stadion Górnik in Łęczna.

Górnik Łęczna vs Sandecja Nowy Sącz — I Liga 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Górnik Łęczna vs Sandecja Nowy Sącz