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Sandecja Nowy Sącz vs Garbarnia Kraków — I Liga 2018

Sandecja Nowy Sącz
Sandecja Nowy Sącz
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Garbarnia Kraków
Garbarnia Kraków
3/16/2019I LigaI Liga · Round 24Stadion im. Ojca Władysława Augustynka (Nowy Sącz)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Sandecja Nowy Sącz56%
×Draw24%
Garbarnia Kraków20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sandecja Nowy Sącz
1.74
Garbarnia Kraków
0.93

Sandecja Nowy Sącz creates 87% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 17 away

creates per match

Sandecja Nowy Sącz
1.29
Garbarnia Kraków
0.71

allows per match

Sandecja Nowy Sącz
1.16
Garbarnia Kraków
2.18

finishing

Sandecja Nowy Sącz+0.00on par
Garbarnia Kraków+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sandecja Nowy Sącz ↓

Garbarnia Kraków →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Sandecja Nowy Sącz or draw
80%
Sandecja Nowy Sącz or Garbarnia Kraków
76%
Draw or Garbarnia Kraków
44%

Winning margin

Sandecja Nowy Sącz wins by 2+
32%
Garbarnia Kraków wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Sandecja Nowy Sącz 1+ goals
82%
Sandecja Nowy Sącz 2+ goals
52%
Sandecja Nowy Sącz 3+ goals
25%
Garbarnia Kraków 1+ goals
61%
Garbarnia Kraków 2+ goals
24%
Garbarnia Kraków 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Sandecja Nowy Sącz (draw refunded)
74%
Garbarnia Kraków (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sandecja Nowy Sącz at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.16 · 85 matches

Garbarnia Kraków away — creates 0.71, concedes 2.18 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sandecja Nowy Sącz attack 1.29 + Garbarnia Kraków defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.74

Garbarnia Kraków attack 0.71 + Sandecja Nowy Sącz defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Sandecja Nowy Sącz scores more
56%
level
24%
Garbarnia Kraków scores more
20%

Sandecja Nowy Sącz at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Sandecja Nowy Sącz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

I Liga: Sandecja Nowy Sącz 0–1 Garbarnia Kraków

Garbarnia Kraków beat Sandecja Nowy Sącz 1-0 in I Liga on March 16, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion im. Ojca Władysława Augustynka (Nowy Sącz).