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Garbarnia Kraków vs Sandecja Nowy Sącz — I Liga 2018

Garbarnia Kraków
Garbarnia Kraków
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Sandecja Nowy Sącz
Sandecja Nowy Sącz
8/26/2018I LigaI Liga · Round 7Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana (Kraków)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Garbarnia Kraków27%
×Draw29%
Sandecja Nowy Sącz44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Garbarnia Kraków
0.93
Sandecja Nowy Sącz
1.26

Sandecja Nowy Sącz creates 35% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 85 away

creates per match

Garbarnia Kraków
0.47
Sandecja Nowy Sącz
0.93

allows per match

Garbarnia Kraków
1.59
Sandecja Nowy Sącz
1.40

finishing

Garbarnia Kraków+0.00on par
Sandecja Nowy Sącz+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Garbarnia Kraków ↓

Sandecja Nowy Sącz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–114%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Garbarnia Kraków or draw
56%
Garbarnia Kraków or Sandecja Nowy Sącz
71%
Draw or Sandecja Nowy Sącz
73%

Winning margin

Garbarnia Kraków wins by 2+
10%
Sandecja Nowy Sącz wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Garbarnia Kraków 1+ goals
61%
Garbarnia Kraków 2+ goals
24%
Garbarnia Kraków 3+ goals
7%
Sandecja Nowy Sącz 1+ goals
72%
Sandecja Nowy Sącz 2+ goals
36%
Sandecja Nowy Sącz 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Garbarnia Kraków (draw refunded)
38%
Sandecja Nowy Sącz (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Garbarnia Kraków at home — creates 0.47, concedes 1.59 · 17 matches

Sandecja Nowy Sącz away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.40 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Garbarnia Kraków attack 0.47 + Sandecja Nowy Sącz defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 0.93

Sandecja Nowy Sącz attack 0.93 + Garbarnia Kraków defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Garbarnia Kraków scores more
27%
level
29%
Sandecja Nowy Sącz scores more
44%

Sandecja Nowy Sącz at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Sandecja Nowy Sącz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

I Liga: Garbarnia Kraków 0–1 Sandecja Nowy Sącz

Sandecja Nowy Sącz beat Garbarnia Kraków 1-0 in I Liga on August 26, 2018.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana (Kraków).