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Sandecja Nowy Sącz vs Bytovia Bytów — I Liga 2018

Sandecja Nowy Sącz
Sandecja Nowy Sącz
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Bytovia Bytów
Bytovia Bytów
9/15/2018I LigaI Liga · Round 10Stadion im. Ojca Władysława Augustynka (Nowy Sącz)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Sandecja Nowy Sącz42%
×Draw25%
Bytovia Bytów33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sandecja Nowy Sącz
1.52
Bytovia Bytów
1.31

Sandecja Nowy Sącz creates 16% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 17 away

creates per match

Sandecja Nowy Sącz
1.29
Bytovia Bytów
1.47

allows per match

Sandecja Nowy Sącz
1.16
Bytovia Bytów
1.76

finishing

Sandecja Nowy Sącz+0.00on par
Bytovia Bytów+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sandecja Nowy Sącz ↓

Bytovia Bytów →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Sandecja Nowy Sącz or draw
67%
Sandecja Nowy Sącz or Bytovia Bytów
75%
Draw or Bytovia Bytów
58%

Winning margin

Sandecja Nowy Sącz wins by 2+
21%
Bytovia Bytów wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Sandecja Nowy Sącz 1+ goals
78%
Sandecja Nowy Sącz 2+ goals
45%
Sandecja Nowy Sącz 3+ goals
20%
Bytovia Bytów 1+ goals
73%
Bytovia Bytów 2+ goals
38%
Bytovia Bytów 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Sandecja Nowy Sącz (draw refunded)
56%
Bytovia Bytów (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sandecja Nowy Sącz at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.16 · 85 matches

Bytovia Bytów away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.76 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sandecja Nowy Sącz attack 1.29 + Bytovia Bytów defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.52

Bytovia Bytów attack 1.47 + Sandecja Nowy Sącz defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Sandecja Nowy Sącz scores more
42%
level
25%
Bytovia Bytów scores more
33%

Sandecja Nowy Sącz at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Sandecja Nowy Sącz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

I Liga: Sandecja Nowy Sącz 1–1 Bytovia Bytów

Sandecja Nowy Sącz and Bytovia Bytów drew 1-1 in I Liga on September 15, 2018.

The match was played at Stadion im. Ojca Władysława Augustynka (Nowy Sącz).