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Bytovia Bytów vs Sandecja Nowy Sącz — I Liga 2018

Bytovia Bytów
Bytovia Bytów
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Sandecja Nowy Sącz
Sandecja Nowy Sącz
4/6/2019I LigaI Liga · Round 27Stadion MOSiR (Bytów)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Bytovia Bytów42%
×Draw28%
Sandecja Nowy Sącz30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bytovia Bytów
1.29
Sandecja Nowy Sącz
1.05

Bytovia Bytów creates 23% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 85 away

creates per match

Bytovia Bytów
1.18
Sandecja Nowy Sącz
0.93

allows per match

Bytovia Bytów
1.18
Sandecja Nowy Sącz
1.40

finishing

Bytovia Bytów+0.00on par
Sandecja Nowy Sącz+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bytovia Bytów ↓

Sandecja Nowy Sącz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Bytovia Bytów or draw
70%
Bytovia Bytów or Sandecja Nowy Sącz
72%
Draw or Sandecja Nowy Sącz
58%

Winning margin

Bytovia Bytów wins by 2+
19%
Sandecja Nowy Sącz wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Bytovia Bytów 1+ goals
72%
Bytovia Bytów 2+ goals
37%
Bytovia Bytów 3+ goals
14%
Sandecja Nowy Sącz 1+ goals
65%
Sandecja Nowy Sącz 2+ goals
28%
Sandecja Nowy Sącz 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Bytovia Bytów (draw refunded)
58%
Sandecja Nowy Sącz (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bytovia Bytów at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.18 · 17 matches

Sandecja Nowy Sącz away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.40 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bytovia Bytów attack 1.18 + Sandecja Nowy Sącz defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.29

Sandecja Nowy Sącz attack 0.93 + Bytovia Bytów defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Bytovia Bytów scores more
42%
level
28%
Sandecja Nowy Sącz scores more
30%

Bytovia Bytów at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Bytovia Bytów will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

I Liga: Bytovia Bytów 1–1 Sandecja Nowy Sącz

Bytovia Bytów and Sandecja Nowy Sącz drew 1-1 in I Liga on April 6, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion MOSiR (Bytów).