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Sanat Naft vs Machine Sazi FC — Persian Gulf Pro League 2018

Sanat Naft
Sanat Naft
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Machine Sazi FC
Machine Sazi FC
12/14/2019Persian Gulf Pro LeaguePersian Gulf Pro League · Round 15Takhti Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Sanat Naft48%
×Draw28%
Machine Sazi FC24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sanat Naft
1.34
Machine Sazi FC
0.86

Sanat Naft creates 56% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 30 away

creates per match

Sanat Naft
1.01
Machine Sazi FC
0.60

allows per match

Sanat Naft
1.12
Machine Sazi FC
1.67

finishing

Sanat Naft+0.00on par
Machine Sazi FC+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sanat Naft ↓

Machine Sazi FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Sanat Naft or draw
76%
Sanat Naft or Machine Sazi FC
72%
Draw or Machine Sazi FC
52%

Winning margin

Sanat Naft wins by 2+
23%
Machine Sazi FC wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Sanat Naft 1+ goals
74%
Sanat Naft 2+ goals
39%
Sanat Naft 3+ goals
15%
Machine Sazi FC 1+ goals
58%
Machine Sazi FC 2+ goals
21%
Machine Sazi FC 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Sanat Naft (draw refunded)
67%
Machine Sazi FC (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sanat Naft at home — creates 1.01, concedes 1.12 · 74 matches

Machine Sazi FC away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.67 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sanat Naft attack 1.01 + Machine Sazi FC defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.34

Machine Sazi FC attack 0.60 + Sanat Naft defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Sanat Naft scores more
48%
level
28%
Machine Sazi FC scores more
24%

Sanat Naft at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Sanat Naft will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sanat Naft vs Machine Sazi FC

Sanat Naft beat Machine Sazi FC 1-0 in Persian Gulf Pro League on December 14, 2019.

The match was played at Takhti Stadium in Abadan.