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Machine Sazi FC vs Sanat Naft — Persian Gulf Pro League 2018

Machine Sazi FC
Machine Sazi FC
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Sanat Naft
Sanat Naft
8/20/2020Persian Gulf Pro LeaguePersian Gulf Pro League · Round 30Bonyan Diesel Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Machine Sazi FC36%
×Draw31%
Sanat Naft33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Machine Sazi FC
1.02
Sanat Naft
0.95

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 45 home / 91 away

creates per match

Machine Sazi FC
0.82
Sanat Naft
0.69

allows per match

Machine Sazi FC
1.22
Sanat Naft
1.22

finishing

Machine Sazi FC+0.00on par
Sanat Naft+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Machine Sazi FC ↓

Sanat Naft →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–114%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Machine Sazi FC or draw
67%
Machine Sazi FC or Sanat Naft
69%
Draw or Sanat Naft
64%

Winning margin

Machine Sazi FC wins by 2+
14%
Sanat Naft wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Machine Sazi FC 1+ goals
64%
Machine Sazi FC 2+ goals
27%
Machine Sazi FC 3+ goals
8%
Sanat Naft 1+ goals
61%
Sanat Naft 2+ goals
25%
Sanat Naft 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Machine Sazi FC (draw refunded)
53%
Sanat Naft (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Machine Sazi FC at home — creates 0.82, concedes 1.22 · 45 matches

Sanat Naft away — creates 0.69, concedes 1.22 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Machine Sazi FC attack 0.82 + Sanat Naft defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.02

Sanat Naft attack 0.69 + Machine Sazi FC defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Machine Sazi FC scores more
36%
level
31%
Sanat Naft scores more
33%

Machine Sazi FC at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Machine Sazi FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Machine Sazi FC vs Sanat Naft

Machine Sazi FC beat Sanat Naft 1-0 in Persian Gulf Pro League on August 20, 2020.

The match was played at Bonyan Diesel Stadium in Tabriz.