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Sanat Naft vs Havadar — Azadegan League 2018

Sanat Naft
Sanat Naft
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Havadar
Havadar
10/13/2025Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 8Takhti Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Sanat Naft42%
×Draw34%
Havadar24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sanat Naft
0.99
Havadar
0.66

Sanat Naft creates 50% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 32 away

creates per match

Sanat Naft
1.29
Havadar
0.78

allows per match

Sanat Naft
0.53
Havadar
0.69

finishing

Sanat Naft+0.00on par
Havadar+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Under
  • Under77
  • Over23

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

70%No
  • No70
  • Yes30

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sanat Naft ↓

Havadar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–019%
0–113%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–113%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–16%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (19%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
81%19%1.5
49%51%2.5
23%77%3.5
9%91%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Sanat Naft or draw
76%
Sanat Naft or Havadar
66%
Draw or Havadar
58%

Winning margin

Sanat Naft wins by 2+
16%
Havadar wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Sanat Naft 1+ goals
63%
Sanat Naft 2+ goals
26%
Sanat Naft 3+ goals
8%
Havadar 1+ goals
48%
Havadar 2+ goals
14%
Havadar 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Sanat Naft (draw refunded)
64%
Havadar (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
18%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sanat Naft at home — creates 1.29, concedes 0.53 · 34 matches

Havadar away — creates 0.78, concedes 0.69 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sanat Naft attack 1.29 + Havadar defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.99

Havadar attack 0.78 + Sanat Naft defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 0.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Sanat Naft scores more
42%
level
34%
Havadar scores more
24%

Sanat Naft at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Sanat Naft will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: Sanat Naft 3–1 Havadar

Sanat Naft beat Havadar 3-1 in Azadegan League on October 13, 2025.

The match was played at Takhti Stadium in Abadan.