Havadar 2–1 Sanat Naft: Result & Stats

Havadar

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Sanat Naft

5/1/2024

Persian Gulf Pro League · Round 25Shahid Dastgerdi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Havadar33%

×Draw32%

Sanat Naft35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HavadarExpected goals in this matchSanat Naft

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.91

0.94

Havadar

0.91

Sanat Naft

0.94

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 59 home / 91 away

0.59

creates per match

0.69

1.19

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Havadar

0.59

Sanat Naft

0.69

allows per match

Havadar

1.19

Sanat Naft

1.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Havadar+0.00on par

Sanat Naft+0.00on par

Total goals

Under72
Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Havadar ↓

Sanat Naft →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–016%

0–115%

0–27%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–07%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

55%45%2.5

28%72%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Havadar or draw

65%

Havadar or Sanat Naft

68%

Draw or Sanat Naft

67%

Winning margin

Havadar wins by 2+

12%

Sanat Naft wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Havadar 1+ goals

60%

Havadar 2+ goals

23%

Havadar 3+ goals

6%

Sanat Naft 1+ goals

61%

Sanat Naft 2+ goals

24%

Sanat Naft 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Havadar (draw refunded)

49%

Sanat Naft (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Havadar at home — creates 0.59, concedes 1.19 · 59 matches

Sanat Naft away — creates 0.69, concedes 1.22 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Havadar attack 0.59 + Sanat Naft defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 0.91

Sanat Naft attack 0.69 + Havadar defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Havadar scores more

33%

level

32%

Sanat Naft scores more

35%

Sanat Naft at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Sanat Naft will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff