San Viator 0–3 San Ignacio: Result & Stats

San Viator

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

San Ignacio

2/8/2025

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 21Campo San Viator

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

San Viator23%

×Draw27%

San Ignacio51%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

San ViatorExpected goals in this matchSan Ignacio

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.88

1.46

San Viator

0.88

San Ignacio

1.46

San Ignacio creates 66% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 112 away

0.59

creates per match

0.99

1.94

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

San Viator

0.59

San Ignacio

0.99

allows per match

San Viator

1.94

San Ignacio

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

San Viator+0.00on par

San Ignacio+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Viator ↓

San Ignacio →

0–010%

0–114%

0–210%

0–35%

0–42%

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2–04%

2–15%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

San Viator or draw

49%

San Viator or San Ignacio

73%

Draw or San Ignacio

77%

Winning margin

San Viator wins by 2+

San Ignacio wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

San Viator 1+ goals

59%

San Viator 2+ goals

22%

San Viator 3+ goals

San Ignacio 1+ goals

77%

San Ignacio 2+ goals

43%

San Ignacio 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

San Viator (draw refunded)

31%

San Ignacio (draw refunded)

69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

San Viator at home — creates 0.59, concedes 1.94 · 17 matches

San Ignacio away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.17 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

San Viator attack 0.59 + San Ignacio defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 0.88

San Ignacio attack 0.99 + San Viator defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 51%?"

San Viator scores more

23%

level

27%

San Ignacio scores more

51%

San Ignacio at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "San Ignacio will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff