San Ignacio 2–1 San Viator: Result & Stats

San Ignacio

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

San Viator

9/29/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 4Campo de fútbol Los Astrónomos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

San Ignacio70%

×Draw18%

San Viator13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

San IgnacioExpected goals in this matchSan Viator

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.40

0.93

San Ignacio

2.40

San Viator

0.93

San Ignacio creates 158% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 17 away

1.38

creates per match

0.65

1.21

allows per match

3.41

creates per match

San Ignacio

1.38

San Viator

0.65

allows per match

San Ignacio

1.21

San Viator

3.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

San Ignacio+0.00on par

San Viator+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Ignacio ↓

San Viator →

0–04%

0–13%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1–09%

1–18%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3–08%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4–05%

4–15%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

San Ignacio or draw

87%

San Ignacio or San Viator

82%

Draw or San Viator

30%

Winning margin

San Ignacio wins by 2+

47%

San Viator wins by 2+

Team goals

San Ignacio 1+ goals

91%

San Ignacio 2+ goals

69%

San Ignacio 3+ goals

42%

San Viator 1+ goals

61%

San Viator 2+ goals

24%

San Viator 3+ goals

Draw no bet

San Ignacio (draw refunded)

84%

San Viator (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

San Ignacio at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.21 · 112 matches

San Viator away — creates 0.65, concedes 3.41 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

San Ignacio attack 1.38 + San Viator defence 3.41 → ÷2 → 2.40

San Viator attack 0.65 + San Ignacio defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 70%?"

San Ignacio scores more

70%

level

18%

San Viator scores more

13%

San Ignacio at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "San Ignacio will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff