San Viator 0–2 Pasaia KE: Result & Stats

San Viator

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Pasaia KE

10/5/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 5Campo San Viator

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

San Viator25%

×Draw26%

Pasaia KE48%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

San ViatorExpected goals in this matchPasaia KE

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.98

1.47

San Viator

0.98

Pasaia KE

1.47

Pasaia KE creates 50% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 111 away

0.59

creates per match

1.00

1.94

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

San Viator

0.59

Pasaia KE

1.00

allows per match

San Viator

1.94

Pasaia KE

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

San Viator+0.00on par

Pasaia KE+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Viator ↓

Pasaia KE →

0–09%

0–113%

0–29%

0–35%

0–42%

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2–04%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

San Viator or draw

52%

San Viator or Pasaia KE

74%

Draw or Pasaia KE

75%

Winning margin

San Viator wins by 2+

Pasaia KE wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

San Viator 1+ goals

62%

San Viator 2+ goals

26%

San Viator 3+ goals

Pasaia KE 1+ goals

77%

Pasaia KE 2+ goals

43%

Pasaia KE 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

San Viator (draw refunded)

34%

Pasaia KE (draw refunded)

66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

San Viator at home — creates 0.59, concedes 1.94 · 17 matches

Pasaia KE away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.38 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

San Viator attack 0.59 + Pasaia KE defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 0.98

Pasaia KE attack 1.00 + San Viator defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 48%?"

San Viator scores more

25%

level

26%

Pasaia KE scores more

48%

Pasaia KE at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Pasaia KE will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff