Pasaia KE 4–2 San Viator: Result & Stats

Pasaia KE

4 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

San Viator

2/15/2025

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 22Campo de fútbol Jesus Mari Zamora

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Pasaia KE64%

×Draw20%

San Viator16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Pasaia KEExpected goals in this matchSan Viator

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.17

0.98

Pasaia KE

2.17

San Viator

0.98

Pasaia KE creates 121% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 17 away

0.93

creates per match

0.65

1.31

allows per match

3.41

creates per match

Pasaia KE

0.93

San Viator

0.65

allows per match

Pasaia KE

1.31

San Viator

3.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pasaia KE+0.00on par

San Viator+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pasaia KE ↓

San Viator →

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1–09%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–07%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Pasaia KE or draw

84%

Pasaia KE or San Viator

80%

Draw or San Viator

36%

Winning margin

Pasaia KE wins by 2+

41%

San Viator wins by 2+

Team goals

Pasaia KE 1+ goals

89%

Pasaia KE 2+ goals

64%

Pasaia KE 3+ goals

36%

San Viator 1+ goals

62%

San Viator 2+ goals

26%

San Viator 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Pasaia KE (draw refunded)

80%

San Viator (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Pasaia KE at home — creates 0.93, concedes 1.31 · 112 matches

San Viator away — creates 0.65, concedes 3.41 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Pasaia KE attack 0.93 + San Viator defence 3.41 → ÷2 → 2.17

San Viator attack 0.65 + Pasaia KE defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 64%?"

Pasaia KE scores more

64%

level

20%

San Viator scores more

16%

Pasaia KE at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Pasaia KE will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff