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San Viator vs Durango — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

San Viator
San Viator
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Durango
Durango
4/5/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 29Campo San Viator

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

San Viator24%
×Draw27%
Durango49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

San Viator
0.93
Durango
1.45

Durango creates 56% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 114 away

creates per match

San Viator
0.59
Durango
0.96

allows per match

San Viator
1.94
Durango
1.27

finishing

San Viator+0.00on par
Durango+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Viator ↓

Durango →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–113%
0–210%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

San Viator or draw
51%
San Viator or Durango
73%
Draw or Durango
76%

Winning margin

San Viator wins by 2+
8%
Durango wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

San Viator 1+ goals
61%
San Viator 2+ goals
24%
San Viator 3+ goals
7%
Durango 1+ goals
77%
Durango 2+ goals
42%
Durango 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

San Viator (draw refunded)
33%
Durango (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Viator at home — creates 0.59, concedes 1.94 · 17 matches

Durango away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.27 · 114 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Viator attack 0.59 + Durango defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 0.93

Durango attack 0.96 + San Viator defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

San Viator scores more
24%
level
27%
Durango scores more
49%

Durango at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Durango will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: San Viator vs Durango

Durango beat San Viator 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 on April 5, 2025.

The match was played at Campo San Viator in Vitoria-Gasteiz.