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Durango vs San Viator — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

Durango
Durango
FT
6 – 0
HT: 5 – 0
San Viator
San Viator
11/23/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 12Estadio Tabira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Durango73%
×Draw17%
San Viator11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Durango
2.40
San Viator
0.79

Durango creates 204% more chances

Season form · 114 home / 17 away

creates per match

Durango
1.39
San Viator
0.65

allows per match

Durango
0.92
San Viator
3.41

finishing

Durango+0.00on par
San Viator+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Durango ↓

San Viator →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–15%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Durango or draw
89%
Durango or San Viator
83%
Draw or San Viator
27%

Winning margin

Durango wins by 2+
50%
San Viator wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Durango 1+ goals
91%
Durango 2+ goals
69%
Durango 3+ goals
42%
San Viator 1+ goals
55%
San Viator 2+ goals
19%
San Viator 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Durango (draw refunded)
87%
San Viator (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Durango at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.92 · 114 matches

San Viator away — creates 0.65, concedes 3.41 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Durango attack 1.39 + San Viator defence 3.41 → ÷2 → 2.40

San Viator attack 0.65 + Durango defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Durango scores more
73%
level
17%
San Viator scores more
11%

Durango at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Durango will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Durango vs San Viator

Durango beat San Viator 6-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 on November 23, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Tabira in Durango.