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San Telmo vs Deportivo Moron — Primera Nacional 2026

San Telmo
San Telmo
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Deportivo Moron
Deportivo Moron
7/21/2024Primera NacionalPrimera Nacional · Round 24Estadio Dr. Osvaldo Francisco Baletto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 102+ matches

San Telmo41%
×Draw30%
Deportivo Moron29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

San Telmo
1.12
Deportivo Moron
0.89

San Telmo creates 26% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 130 away

creates per match

San Telmo
1.20
Deportivo Moron
0.78

allows per match

San Telmo
1.00
Deportivo Moron
1.04

finishing

San Telmo+0.00on par
Deportivo Moron+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Telmo ↓

Deportivo Moron →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–112%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

San Telmo or draw
71%
San Telmo or Deportivo Moron
70%
Draw or Deportivo Moron
59%

Winning margin

San Telmo wins by 2+
17%
Deportivo Moron wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

San Telmo 1+ goals
67%
San Telmo 2+ goals
31%
San Telmo 3+ goals
10%
Deportivo Moron 1+ goals
59%
Deportivo Moron 2+ goals
22%
Deportivo Moron 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

San Telmo (draw refunded)
59%
Deportivo Moron (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Telmo at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.00 · 102 matches

Deportivo Moron away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.04 · 130 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Telmo attack 1.20 + Deportivo Moron defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.12

Deportivo Moron attack 0.78 + San Telmo defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

San Telmo scores more
41%
level
30%
Deportivo Moron scores more
29%

San Telmo at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "San Telmo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera Nacional: San Telmo 1–1 Deportivo Moron

San Telmo and Deportivo Moron drew 1-1 in Primera Nacional on July 21, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Dr. Osvaldo Francisco Baletto in Avellaneda, Provincia de Buenos Aires.