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Deportivo Moron vs San Telmo — Primera Nacional 2026

Deportivo Moron
Deportivo Moron
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
San Telmo
San Telmo
3/15/2025Primera NacionalPrimera Nacional · Round 6Estadio Nuevo Francisco Urbano

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 99+ matches

Deportivo Moron49%
×Draw29%
San Telmo22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Moron
1.30
San Telmo
0.78

Deportivo Moron creates 67% more chances

Season form · 130 home / 99 away

creates per match

Deportivo Moron
1.15
San Telmo
0.87

allows per match

Deportivo Moron
0.69
San Telmo
1.45

finishing

Deportivo Moron+0.00on par
San Telmo+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Moron ↓

San Telmo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Deportivo Moron or draw
78%
Deportivo Moron or San Telmo
71%
Draw or San Telmo
51%

Winning margin

Deportivo Moron wins by 2+
23%
San Telmo wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Deportivo Moron 1+ goals
73%
Deportivo Moron 2+ goals
37%
Deportivo Moron 3+ goals
14%
San Telmo 1+ goals
54%
San Telmo 2+ goals
18%
San Telmo 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Moron (draw refunded)
69%
San Telmo (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Moron at home — creates 1.15, concedes 0.69 · 130 matches

San Telmo away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.45 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Moron attack 1.15 + San Telmo defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.30

San Telmo attack 0.87 + Deportivo Moron defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Deportivo Moron scores more
49%
level
29%
San Telmo scores more
22%

Deportivo Moron at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Deportivo Moron will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Deportivo Moron vs San Telmo

Deportivo Moron and San Telmo drew 1-1 in Primera Nacional on March 15, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Nuevo Francisco Urbano in Moron.