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San Roque Lepe vs Gerena — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

San Roque Lepe
San Roque Lepe
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Gerena
Gerena
1/10/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 11Estadio Municipal Ciudad de Lepe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

San Roque Lepe45%
×Draw28%
Gerena27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

San Roque Lepe
1.30
Gerena
0.94

San Roque Lepe creates 38% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 76 away

creates per match

San Roque Lepe
1.34
Gerena
1.11

allows per match

San Roque Lepe
0.76
Gerena
1.26

finishing

San Roque Lepe+0.00on par
Gerena+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Roque Lepe ↓

Gerena →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

San Roque Lepe or draw
73%
San Roque Lepe or Gerena
72%
Draw or Gerena
55%

Winning margin

San Roque Lepe wins by 2+
21%
Gerena wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

San Roque Lepe 1+ goals
73%
San Roque Lepe 2+ goals
37%
San Roque Lepe 3+ goals
14%
Gerena 1+ goals
61%
Gerena 2+ goals
24%
Gerena 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

San Roque Lepe (draw refunded)
62%
Gerena (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Roque Lepe at home — creates 1.34, concedes 0.76 · 62 matches

Gerena away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.26 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Roque Lepe attack 1.34 + Gerena defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.30

Gerena attack 1.11 + San Roque Lepe defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

San Roque Lepe scores more
45%
level
28%
Gerena scores more
27%

San Roque Lepe at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "San Roque Lepe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: San Roque Lepe vs Gerena

San Roque Lepe and Gerena drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on January 10, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Ciudad de Lepe in Lepe.