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Gerena vs San Roque Lepe — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Gerena
Gerena
CANC
00:00
San Roque Lepe
San Roque Lepe
3/22/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 31Estadio José Juan Romero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Gerena47%
×Draw27%
San Roque Lepe26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gerena
1.40
San Roque Lepe
0.95

Gerena creates 47% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 61 away

creates per match

Gerena
1.51
San Roque Lepe
0.97

allows per match

Gerena
0.94
San Roque Lepe
1.28

finishing

Gerena+0.00on par
San Roque Lepe+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gerena ↓

San Roque Lepe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Gerena or draw
74%
Gerena or San Roque Lepe
73%
Draw or San Roque Lepe
53%

Winning margin

Gerena wins by 2+
23%
San Roque Lepe wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Gerena 1+ goals
75%
Gerena 2+ goals
41%
Gerena 3+ goals
17%
San Roque Lepe 1+ goals
61%
San Roque Lepe 2+ goals
25%
San Roque Lepe 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Gerena (draw refunded)
65%
San Roque Lepe (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gerena at home — creates 1.51, concedes 0.94 · 78 matches

San Roque Lepe away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.28 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gerena attack 1.51 + San Roque Lepe defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.40

San Roque Lepe attack 0.97 + Gerena defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Gerena scores more
47%
level
27%
San Roque Lepe scores more
26%

Gerena at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Gerena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Gerena host San Roque Lepe

March 22, 2020: Gerena take on San Roque Lepe in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Gerena host San Roque Lepe at Estadio José Juan Romero.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.