San Roque Lepe 1–2 Bollullos: Result & Stats

San Roque Lepe

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Bollullos

2/2/2025

Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 20Estadio Municipal Ciudad de Lepe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

San Roque Lepe49%

×Draw28%

Bollullos23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

San Roque LepeExpected goals in this matchBollullos

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

0.82

San Roque Lepe

1.35

Bollullos

0.82

San Roque Lepe creates 65% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 67 away

1.34

creates per match

0.88

0.76

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

San Roque Lepe

1.34

Bollullos

0.88

allows per match

San Roque Lepe

0.76

Bollullos

1.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

San Roque Lepe+0.00on par

Bollullos+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Roque Lepe ↓

Bollullos →

0–011%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–015%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2–010%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

San Roque Lepe or draw

77%

San Roque Lepe or Bollullos

72%

Draw or Bollullos

51%

Winning margin

San Roque Lepe wins by 2+

24%

Bollullos wins by 2+

Team goals

San Roque Lepe 1+ goals

74%

San Roque Lepe 2+ goals

39%

San Roque Lepe 3+ goals

15%

Bollullos 1+ goals

56%

Bollullos 2+ goals

20%

Bollullos 3+ goals

Draw no bet

San Roque Lepe (draw refunded)

68%

Bollullos (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

San Roque Lepe at home — creates 1.34, concedes 0.76 · 62 matches

Bollullos away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.36 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

San Roque Lepe attack 1.34 + Bollullos defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.35

Bollullos attack 0.88 + San Roque Lepe defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 49%?"

San Roque Lepe scores more

49%

level

28%

Bollullos scores more

23%

San Roque Lepe at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "San Roque Lepe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 10: San Roque Lepe 1–2 Bollullos

Bollullos beat San Roque Lepe 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on February 2, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Ciudad de Lepe in Lepe.

San Roque Lepe vs Bollullos — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 10: San Roque Lepe 1–2 Bollullos