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Bollullos vs San Roque Lepe — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Bollullos
Bollullos
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
San Roque Lepe
San Roque Lepe
3/8/2026Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 25Estadio Eloy Ávila Cano Bollullos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Bollullos44%
×Draw28%
San Roque Lepe28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bollullos
1.29
San Roque Lepe
0.98

Bollullos creates 32% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 61 away

creates per match

Bollullos
1.31
San Roque Lepe
0.97

allows per match

Bollullos
1.00
San Roque Lepe
1.28

finishing

Bollullos+0.00on par
San Roque Lepe+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bollullos ↓

San Roque Lepe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Bollullos or draw
72%
Bollullos or San Roque Lepe
72%
Draw or San Roque Lepe
56%

Winning margin

Bollullos wins by 2+
20%
San Roque Lepe wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Bollullos 1+ goals
72%
Bollullos 2+ goals
37%
Bollullos 3+ goals
14%
San Roque Lepe 1+ goals
62%
San Roque Lepe 2+ goals
26%
San Roque Lepe 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Bollullos (draw refunded)
61%
San Roque Lepe (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bollullos at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.00 · 67 matches

San Roque Lepe away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.28 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bollullos attack 1.31 + San Roque Lepe defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.29

San Roque Lepe attack 0.97 + Bollullos defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Bollullos scores more
44%
level
28%
San Roque Lepe scores more
28%

Bollullos at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Bollullos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Bollullos 2 – 2 San Roque Lepe

Bollullos and San Roque Lepe drew 2-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on March 8, 2026.

The match was played at Estadio Eloy Ávila Cano Bollullos in Bollullos Par del Condado.