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San Rafael vs Rotlet Molinar — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

San Rafael
San Rafael
FT
2 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Rotlet Molinar
Rotlet Molinar
4/14/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 11Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 39Estadio Municipal de Sant Rafel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

San Rafael56%
×Draw23%
Rotlet Molinar21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

San Rafael
1.81
Rotlet Molinar
1.03

San Rafael creates 76% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 37 away

creates per match

San Rafael
1.85
Rotlet Molinar
0.76

allows per match

San Rafael
1.30
Rotlet Molinar
1.76

finishing

San Rafael+0.00on par
Rotlet Molinar+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Rafael ↓

Rotlet Molinar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

San Rafael or draw
79%
San Rafael or Rotlet Molinar
77%
Draw or Rotlet Molinar
44%

Winning margin

San Rafael wins by 2+
31%
Rotlet Molinar wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

San Rafael 1+ goals
84%
San Rafael 2+ goals
54%
San Rafael 3+ goals
27%
Rotlet Molinar 1+ goals
64%
Rotlet Molinar 2+ goals
28%
Rotlet Molinar 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

San Rafael (draw refunded)
72%
Rotlet Molinar (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Rafael at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.30 · 46 matches

Rotlet Molinar away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.76 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Rafael attack 1.85 + Rotlet Molinar defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.81

Rotlet Molinar attack 0.76 + San Rafael defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

San Rafael scores more
56%
level
23%
Rotlet Molinar scores more
21%

San Rafael at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "San Rafael will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11: San Rafael 2–3 Rotlet Molinar

Rotlet Molinar beat San Rafael 3-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 on April 14, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Sant Rafel in Ibiza.