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Rotlet Molinar vs San Rafael — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

Rotlet Molinar
Rotlet Molinar
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
San Rafael
San Rafael
12/12/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 11Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 18Camp De Futbol Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Rotlet Molinar39%
×Draw27%
San Rafael35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rotlet Molinar
1.32
San Rafael
1.24

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 37 home / 47 away

creates per match

Rotlet Molinar
1.11
San Rafael
0.94

allows per match

Rotlet Molinar
1.54
San Rafael
1.53

finishing

Rotlet Molinar+0.00on par
San Rafael+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rotlet Molinar ↓

San Rafael →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Rotlet Molinar or draw
65%
Rotlet Molinar or San Rafael
73%
Draw or San Rafael
61%

Winning margin

Rotlet Molinar wins by 2+
17%
San Rafael wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Rotlet Molinar 1+ goals
73%
Rotlet Molinar 2+ goals
38%
Rotlet Molinar 3+ goals
15%
San Rafael 1+ goals
71%
San Rafael 2+ goals
35%
San Rafael 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Rotlet Molinar (draw refunded)
53%
San Rafael (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rotlet Molinar at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.54 · 37 matches

San Rafael away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.53 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rotlet Molinar attack 1.11 + San Rafael defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.32

San Rafael attack 0.94 + Rotlet Molinar defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Rotlet Molinar scores more
39%
level
27%
San Rafael scores more
35%

Rotlet Molinar at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Rotlet Molinar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rotlet Molinar vs San Rafael

Rotlet Molinar beat San Rafael 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 on December 12, 2021.

The match was played at Camp De Futbol Municipal in Palma de Mallorca.