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San Rafael vs Portmany — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

San Rafael
San Rafael
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Portmany
Portmany
5/23/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 11Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 2nd Phase - 6Estadio Municipal de Sant Rafel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

San Rafael52%
×Draw23%
Portmany24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

San Rafael
1.79
Portmany
1.15

San Rafael creates 56% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 112 away

creates per match

San Rafael
1.85
Portmany
0.99

allows per match

San Rafael
1.30
Portmany
1.73

finishing

San Rafael+0.00on par
Portmany+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Rafael ↓

Portmany →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

San Rafael or draw
76%
San Rafael or Portmany
77%
Draw or Portmany
48%

Winning margin

San Rafael wins by 2+
29%
Portmany wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

San Rafael 1+ goals
83%
San Rafael 2+ goals
53%
San Rafael 3+ goals
26%
Portmany 1+ goals
68%
Portmany 2+ goals
32%
Portmany 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

San Rafael (draw refunded)
68%
Portmany (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Rafael at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.30 · 46 matches

Portmany away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.73 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Rafael attack 1.85 + Portmany defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.79

Portmany attack 0.99 + San Rafael defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

San Rafael scores more
52%
level
23%
Portmany scores more
24%

San Rafael at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "San Rafael will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11: San Rafael 1–1 Portmany

San Rafael and Portmany drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 on May 23, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Sant Rafel in Ibiza.