Portmany 2–2 San Rafael: Result & Stats

Portmany

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

San Rafael

10/12/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 8Estadio Sant Antoni

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Portmany45%

×Draw27%

San Rafael28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PortmanyExpected goals in this matchSan Rafael

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.02

Portmany

1.38

San Rafael

1.02

Portmany creates 35% more chances

Season form · 113 home / 47 away

1.23

creates per match

0.94

1.11

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Portmany

1.23

San Rafael

0.94

allows per match

Portmany

1.11

San Rafael

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Portmany+0.00on par

San Rafael+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portmany ↓

San Rafael →

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Portmany or draw

72%

Portmany or San Rafael

73%

Draw or San Rafael

55%

Winning margin

Portmany wins by 2+

21%

San Rafael wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Portmany 1+ goals

75%

Portmany 2+ goals

40%

Portmany 3+ goals

16%

San Rafael 1+ goals

64%

San Rafael 2+ goals

27%

San Rafael 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Portmany (draw refunded)

62%

San Rafael (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Portmany at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.11 · 113 matches

San Rafael away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.53 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Portmany attack 1.23 + San Rafael defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.38

San Rafael attack 0.94 + Portmany defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 45%?"

Portmany scores more

45%

level

27%

San Rafael scores more

28%

Portmany at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Portmany will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff