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San Rafael vs Poblense — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

San Rafael
San Rafael
CANC
00:00
Poblense
Poblense
3/22/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 11Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 29Estadio Municipal de Sant Rafel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

San Rafael33%
×Draw25%
Poblense41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

San Rafael
1.29
Poblense
1.46

Poblense creates 13% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 83 away

creates per match

San Rafael
1.85
Poblense
1.63

allows per match

San Rafael
1.30
Poblense
0.72

finishing

San Rafael+0.00on par
Poblense+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Rafael ↓

Poblense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

San Rafael or draw
59%
San Rafael or Poblense
75%
Draw or Poblense
67%

Winning margin

San Rafael wins by 2+
15%
Poblense wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

San Rafael 1+ goals
72%
San Rafael 2+ goals
37%
San Rafael 3+ goals
14%
Poblense 1+ goals
77%
Poblense 2+ goals
43%
Poblense 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

San Rafael (draw refunded)
45%
Poblense (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Rafael at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.30 · 46 matches

Poblense away — creates 1.63, concedes 0.72 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Rafael attack 1.85 + Poblense defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 1.29

Poblense attack 1.63 + San Rafael defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

San Rafael scores more
33%
level
25%
Poblense scores more
41%

Poblense at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Poblense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

San Rafael face Poblense (Tercera División RFEF - Group 11)

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 returns with San Rafael hosting Poblense. Match starts March 22, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

San Rafael host Poblense at Estadio Municipal de Sant Rafel.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.