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Poblense vs San Rafael — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

Poblense
Poblense
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
San Rafael
San Rafael
10/26/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 11Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 10Estadio Municipal de Sa Pobla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Poblense66%
×Draw21%
San Rafael13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Poblense
1.92
San Rafael
0.71

Poblense creates 170% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 47 away

creates per match

Poblense
2.31
San Rafael
0.94

allows per match

Poblense
0.49
San Rafael
1.53

finishing

Poblense+0.00on par
San Rafael+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Poblense ↓

San Rafael →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Poblense or draw
87%
Poblense or San Rafael
79%
Draw or San Rafael
34%

Winning margin

Poblense wins by 2+
40%
San Rafael wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Poblense 1+ goals
85%
Poblense 2+ goals
57%
Poblense 3+ goals
30%
San Rafael 1+ goals
51%
San Rafael 2+ goals
16%
San Rafael 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Poblense (draw refunded)
83%
San Rafael (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Poblense at home — creates 2.31, concedes 0.49 · 81 matches

San Rafael away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.53 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Poblense attack 2.31 + San Rafael defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.92

San Rafael attack 0.94 + Poblense defence 0.49 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Poblense scores more
66%
level
21%
San Rafael scores more
13%

Poblense at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Poblense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Poblense vs San Rafael

Poblense beat San Rafael 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 on October 26, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Sa Pobla in Mallorca.