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San Rafael vs Platges Calvià — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

San Rafael
San Rafael
CANC
22:00
Platges Calvià
Platges Calvià
5/16/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 11Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 38Estadio Municipal de Sant Rafel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

San Rafael41%
×Draw26%
Platges Calvià32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

San Rafael
1.40
Platges Calvià
1.21

San Rafael creates 16% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 112 away

creates per match

San Rafael
1.85
Platges Calvià
1.13

allows per match

San Rafael
1.30
Platges Calvià
0.94

finishing

San Rafael+0.00on par
Platges Calvià+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Rafael ↓

Platges Calvià →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

San Rafael or draw
68%
San Rafael or Platges Calvià
74%
Draw or Platges Calvià
59%

Winning margin

San Rafael wins by 2+
19%
Platges Calvià wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

San Rafael 1+ goals
75%
San Rafael 2+ goals
41%
San Rafael 3+ goals
17%
Platges Calvià 1+ goals
70%
Platges Calvià 2+ goals
34%
Platges Calvià 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

San Rafael (draw refunded)
56%
Platges Calvià (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Rafael at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.30 · 46 matches

Platges Calvià away — creates 1.13, concedes 0.94 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Rafael attack 1.85 + Platges Calvià defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.40

Platges Calvià attack 1.13 + San Rafael defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

San Rafael scores more
41%
level
26%
Platges Calvià scores more
32%

San Rafael at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "San Rafael will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

San Rafael vs Platges Calvià — Match Preview

San Rafael face Platges Calvià on May 16, 2020 in this Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

San Rafael host Platges Calvià at Estadio Municipal de Sant Rafel.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.