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Platges Calvià vs San Rafael — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

Platges Calvià
Platges Calvià
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
San Rafael
San Rafael
3/10/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 11Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 13Polideportivo Municipal de Magalluf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Platges Calvià52%
×Draw26%
San Rafael22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Platges Calvià
1.52
San Rafael
0.89

Platges Calvià creates 71% more chances

Season form · 113 home / 47 away

creates per match

Platges Calvià
1.52
San Rafael
0.94

allows per match

Platges Calvià
0.83
San Rafael
1.53

finishing

Platges Calvià+0.00on par
San Rafael+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Platges Calvià ↓

San Rafael →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Platges Calvià or draw
78%
Platges Calvià or San Rafael
74%
Draw or San Rafael
48%

Winning margin

Platges Calvià wins by 2+
27%
San Rafael wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Platges Calvià 1+ goals
78%
Platges Calvià 2+ goals
45%
Platges Calvià 3+ goals
20%
San Rafael 1+ goals
59%
San Rafael 2+ goals
22%
San Rafael 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Platges Calvià (draw refunded)
70%
San Rafael (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Platges Calvià at home — creates 1.52, concedes 0.83 · 113 matches

San Rafael away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.53 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Platges Calvià attack 1.52 + San Rafael defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.52

San Rafael attack 0.94 + Platges Calvià defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Platges Calvià scores more
52%
level
26%
San Rafael scores more
22%

Platges Calvià at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Platges Calvià will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Platges Calvià vs San Rafael

Platges Calvià beat San Rafael 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 on March 10, 2021.

The match was played at Polideportivo Municipal de Magalluf in Mallorca.