San Rafael 0–1 PE Sant Jordi: Result & Stats

San Rafael

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

PE Sant Jordi

12/8/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 17Estadio Municipal de Sant Rafel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

San Rafael48%

×Draw24%

PE Sant Jordi28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

San RafaelExpected goals in this matchPE Sant Jordi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.70

1.24

San Rafael

1.70

PE Sant Jordi

1.24

San Rafael creates 37% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 65 away

1.85

creates per match

1.18

1.30

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

San Rafael

1.85

PE Sant Jordi

1.18

allows per match

San Rafael

1.30

PE Sant Jordi

1.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

San Rafael+0.00on par

PE Sant Jordi+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Rafael ↓

PE Sant Jordi →

0–05%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

San Rafael or draw

72%

San Rafael or PE Sant Jordi

76%

Draw or PE Sant Jordi

52%

Winning margin

San Rafael wins by 2+

26%

PE Sant Jordi wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

San Rafael 1+ goals

82%

San Rafael 2+ goals

51%

San Rafael 3+ goals

24%

PE Sant Jordi 1+ goals

71%

PE Sant Jordi 2+ goals

35%

PE Sant Jordi 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

San Rafael (draw refunded)

63%

PE Sant Jordi (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

San Rafael at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.30 · 46 matches

PE Sant Jordi away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.55 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

San Rafael attack 1.85 + PE Sant Jordi defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.70

PE Sant Jordi attack 1.18 + San Rafael defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 48%?"

San Rafael scores more

48%

level

24%

PE Sant Jordi scores more

28%

San Rafael at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "San Rafael will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: San Rafael vs PE Sant Jordi

PE Sant Jordi beat San Rafael 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 on December 8, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Sant Rafel in Ibiza.

San Rafael vs PE Sant Jordi — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: San Rafael vs PE Sant Jordi