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PE Sant Jordi vs San Rafael — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

PE Sant Jordi
PE Sant Jordi
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
San Rafael
San Rafael
4/10/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 11Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 38Campo Municipal Kiko Serra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

PE Sant Jordi45%
×Draw26%
San Rafael28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

PE Sant Jordi
1.44
San Rafael
1.08

PE Sant Jordi creates 33% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 47 away

creates per match

PE Sant Jordi
1.34
San Rafael
0.94

allows per match

PE Sant Jordi
1.23
San Rafael
1.53

finishing

PE Sant Jordi+0.00on par
San Rafael+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PE Sant Jordi ↓

San Rafael →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

PE Sant Jordi or draw
72%
PE Sant Jordi or San Rafael
74%
Draw or San Rafael
55%

Winning margin

PE Sant Jordi wins by 2+
22%
San Rafael wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

PE Sant Jordi 1+ goals
76%
PE Sant Jordi 2+ goals
42%
PE Sant Jordi 3+ goals
18%
San Rafael 1+ goals
66%
San Rafael 2+ goals
29%
San Rafael 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

PE Sant Jordi (draw refunded)
62%
San Rafael (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PE Sant Jordi at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.23 · 65 matches

San Rafael away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.53 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PE Sant Jordi attack 1.34 + San Rafael defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.44

San Rafael attack 0.94 + PE Sant Jordi defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

PE Sant Jordi scores more
45%
level
26%
San Rafael scores more
28%

PE Sant Jordi at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "PE Sant Jordi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11: PE Sant Jordi 2–2 San Rafael

PE Sant Jordi and San Rafael drew 2-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 on April 10, 2022.

The match was played at Campo Municipal Kiko Serra in Sant Josep de sa Talaia, Illes Balears.