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San Rafael vs Ibiza Islas Pitiusas — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

San Rafael
San Rafael
CANC
00:00
Ibiza Islas Pitiusas
Ibiza Islas Pitiusas
4/5/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 11Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 31Estadio Municipal de Sant Rafel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

San Rafael28%
×Draw24%
Ibiza Islas Pitiusas47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

San Rafael
1.22
Ibiza Islas Pitiusas
1.65

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas creates 35% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 44 away

creates per match

San Rafael
1.85
Ibiza Islas Pitiusas
2.00

allows per match

San Rafael
1.30
Ibiza Islas Pitiusas
0.59

finishing

San Rafael+0.00on par
Ibiza Islas Pitiusas+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Rafael ↓

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

San Rafael or draw
53%
San Rafael or Ibiza Islas Pitiusas
76%
Draw or Ibiza Islas Pitiusas
72%

Winning margin

San Rafael wins by 2+
12%
Ibiza Islas Pitiusas wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

San Rafael 1+ goals
70%
San Rafael 2+ goals
34%
San Rafael 3+ goals
12%
Ibiza Islas Pitiusas 1+ goals
81%
Ibiza Islas Pitiusas 2+ goals
49%
Ibiza Islas Pitiusas 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

San Rafael (draw refunded)
37%
Ibiza Islas Pitiusas (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Rafael at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.30 · 46 matches

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas away — creates 2.00, concedes 0.59 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Rafael attack 1.85 + Ibiza Islas Pitiusas defence 0.59 → ÷2 → 1.22

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas attack 2.00 + San Rafael defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

San Rafael scores more
28%
level
24%
Ibiza Islas Pitiusas scores more
47%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Ibiza Islas Pitiusas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

San Rafael face Ibiza Islas Pitiusas (Tercera División RFEF - Group 11)

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 returns with San Rafael hosting Ibiza Islas Pitiusas. Match starts April 5, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

San Rafael host Ibiza Islas Pitiusas at Estadio Municipal de Sant Rafel.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.