Ibiza Islas Pitiusas 1–1 San Rafael: Result & Stats

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

San Rafael

Sergi Piña 63'

Juan Carlos 23'

11/10/2019

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 12Estadio Municipal de Can Misses

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas65%

×Draw22%

San Rafael13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ibiza Islas PitiusasExpected goals in this matchSan Rafael

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

0.69

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

1.83

San Rafael

0.69

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas creates 165% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 47 away

2.14

creates per match

0.94

0.44

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

2.14

San Rafael

0.94

allows per match

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

0.44

San Rafael

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas+0.00on par

San Rafael+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas ↓

San Rafael →

0–08%

0–16%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1–015%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2–014%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3–08%

3–16%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas or draw

87%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas or San Rafael

78%

Draw or San Rafael

35%

Winning margin

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas wins by 2+

38%

San Rafael wins by 2+

Team goals

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas 1+ goals

84%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas 2+ goals

54%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas 3+ goals

28%

San Rafael 1+ goals

50%

San Rafael 2+ goals

15%

San Rafael 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas (draw refunded)

83%

San Rafael (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas at home — creates 2.14, concedes 0.44 · 43 matches

San Rafael away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.53 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas attack 2.14 + San Rafael defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.83

San Rafael attack 0.94 + Ibiza Islas Pitiusas defence 0.44 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 65%?"

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas scores more

65%

level

22%

San Rafael scores more

13%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Ibiza Islas Pitiusas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

23'

Juan Carlos

46'

Cristian Terán← Onofre Riera

58'

Dailos Tejera← Solano

63'

Sergi Piña

73'

M. Ndao← Juan Carlos

75'

José Arias← Sergi Piña

76'

Álex Walter← Javi Moreno

90'

Guille Nieto← Mario Mourelo

Ibiza

San

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Piña

Manager: José Pérez

46'▲Cristian Terán←▼Onofre Riera

58'▲Dailos Tejera←▼Solano

75'▲José Arias←▼Sergi Piña

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas substitutes

TeránTejeraArias

Manager: Vicente Román

73'▲M. Ndao←▼Juan Carlos

76'▲Álex Walter←▼Javi Moreno

90'▲Guille Nieto←▼Mario Mourelo

San Rafael substitutes

NdaoWalterNieto

Match Recap: Ibiza Islas Pitiusas vs San Rafael

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas and San Rafael drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 on November 10, 2019.

Goals: Juan Carlos (23'), Sergi Piña (63').

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Can Misses in Ibiza.

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas vs San Rafael — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Ibiza Islas Pitiusas vs San Rafael