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San Rafael vs Esporles — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

San Rafael
San Rafael
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Esporles
Esporles
2/8/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 11Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 23Estadio Municipal de Sant Rafel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

San Rafael62%
×Draw21%
Esporles17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

San Rafael
2.02
Esporles
0.94

San Rafael creates 115% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 28 away

creates per match

San Rafael
1.85
Esporles
0.57

allows per match

San Rafael
1.30
Esporles
2.18

finishing

San Rafael+0.00on par
Esporles+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Rafael ↓

Esporles →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

San Rafael or draw
83%
San Rafael or Esporles
79%
Draw or Esporles
38%

Winning margin

San Rafael wins by 2+
38%
Esporles wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

San Rafael 1+ goals
87%
San Rafael 2+ goals
60%
San Rafael 3+ goals
33%
Esporles 1+ goals
61%
Esporles 2+ goals
24%
Esporles 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

San Rafael (draw refunded)
79%
Esporles (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Rafael at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.30 · 46 matches

Esporles away — creates 0.57, concedes 2.18 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Rafael attack 1.85 + Esporles defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 2.02

Esporles attack 0.57 + San Rafael defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

San Rafael scores more
62%
level
21%
Esporles scores more
17%

San Rafael at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "San Rafael will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11: San Rafael 3–0 Esporles

San Rafael beat Esporles 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 on February 8, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Sant Rafel in Ibiza.