Esporles 1–1 San Rafael: Result & Stats

Esporles

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

San Rafael

9/14/2019

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 4Son Quint Estadio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Esporles31%

×Draw24%

San Rafael45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EsporlesExpected goals in this matchSan Rafael

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.37

1.68

Esporles

1.37

San Rafael

1.68

San Rafael creates 23% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 47 away

1.21

creates per match

0.94

2.41

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Esporles

1.21

San Rafael

0.94

allows per match

Esporles

2.41

San Rafael

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Esporles+0.00on par

San Rafael+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Esporles ↓

San Rafael →

0–05%

0–18%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–41%

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Esporles or draw

55%

Esporles or San Rafael

76%

Draw or San Rafael

69%

Winning margin

Esporles wins by 2+

14%

San Rafael wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Esporles 1+ goals

75%

Esporles 2+ goals

40%

Esporles 3+ goals

16%

San Rafael 1+ goals

81%

San Rafael 2+ goals

50%

San Rafael 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Esporles (draw refunded)

41%

San Rafael (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Esporles at home — creates 1.21, concedes 2.41 · 29 matches

San Rafael away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.53 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Esporles attack 1.21 + San Rafael defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.37

San Rafael attack 0.94 + Esporles defence 2.41 → ÷2 → 1.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 45%?"

Esporles scores more

31%

level

24%

San Rafael scores more

45%

San Rafael at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "San Rafael will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff