San Rafael 2–0 Collerense: Result & Stats

San Rafael

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Collerense

10/17/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 9Estadio Municipal de Sant Rafel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

San Rafael54%

×Draw23%

Collerense23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

San RafaelExpected goals in this matchCollerense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.86

1.15

San Rafael

1.86

Collerense

1.15

San Rafael creates 62% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 113 away

1.85

creates per match

1.00

1.30

allows per match

1.88

creates per match

San Rafael

1.85

Collerense

1.00

allows per match

San Rafael

1.30

Collerense

1.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

San Rafael+0.00on par

Collerense+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Rafael ↓

Collerense →

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–09%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

San Rafael or draw

77%

San Rafael or Collerense

77%

Draw or Collerense

46%

Winning margin

San Rafael wins by 2+

31%

Collerense wins by 2+

Team goals

San Rafael 1+ goals

84%

San Rafael 2+ goals

55%

San Rafael 3+ goals

28%

Collerense 1+ goals

68%

Collerense 2+ goals

32%

Collerense 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

San Rafael (draw refunded)

70%

Collerense (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

San Rafael at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.30 · 46 matches

Collerense away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.88 · 113 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

San Rafael attack 1.85 + Collerense defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.86

Collerense attack 1.00 + San Rafael defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 54%?"

San Rafael scores more

54%

level

23%

Collerense scores more

23%

San Rafael at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "San Rafael will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff