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Collerense vs San Rafael — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

Collerense
Collerense
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
San Rafael
San Rafael
5/15/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 11Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 2nd Phase - 5Estadio Municipal Coll d’en Rebassa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Collerense43%
×Draw27%
San Rafael30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Collerense
1.40
San Rafael
1.13

Collerense creates 24% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 47 away

creates per match

Collerense
1.26
San Rafael
0.94

allows per match

Collerense
1.31
San Rafael
1.53

finishing

Collerense+0.00on par
San Rafael+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Collerense ↓

San Rafael →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Collerense or draw
70%
Collerense or San Rafael
73%
Draw or San Rafael
57%

Winning margin

Collerense wins by 2+
20%
San Rafael wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Collerense 1+ goals
75%
Collerense 2+ goals
41%
Collerense 3+ goals
17%
San Rafael 1+ goals
68%
San Rafael 2+ goals
31%
San Rafael 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Collerense (draw refunded)
59%
San Rafael (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Collerense at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.31 · 112 matches

San Rafael away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.53 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Collerense attack 1.26 + San Rafael defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.40

San Rafael attack 0.94 + Collerense defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Collerense scores more
43%
level
27%
San Rafael scores more
30%

Collerense at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Collerense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Collerense vs San Rafael

Collerense beat San Rafael 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 on May 15, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Coll d’en Rebassa in Mallorca.